Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill each had two 30+ points performances. On its face, that seems like an outrageous question. If we can establish the probability of a catch of a typical receiver, given all the contextual details of a pass route, including route type, depth, coverage and many other variables, we can set a benchmark of expected "openness" agnostic to the ability of the receiver to get open. You can find me on Twitter @TheBauerClub, and consider subscribing to my podcast, DynastyTheory. In other words, the regression thinks Johnsons much more likely to maintain his elite TPRR than Stills is to maintain his elite Y/T. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals tight end Ricky Seals-Jones celebrates after catching a pass for a second quarter touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars at University of Phoenix Stadium. The elements of savvy route running footwork, . Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. How will Josh McDaniels' Raiders and Robert Saleh's Jets address the gaping hole at quarterback? From the perspective of the receiver, however, he is a primary and direct influence on that very context. Quarterbacks are clearly an essential factor in whether a receiver makes catches and gains yards. For the best in the game, these plays will occasionally pop for huge gains because of their elite speed and run-after-catch ability. For example, YAC Score looks at the tracking data at the time of catch and makes a prediction of how many additional yards a receiver will typically make, based on the locations, directions and speeds of all 22 players. ESPN Analytics is launching RTMs leaderboards next month in conjunction with FiveThirtyEight -- you'll be able to view updated numbers every week -- but we're unveiling the metrics now to provide a reference to explain what they're all about. The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. Some receivers attract more attention from defenses than others, which allows other pass-catchers to get less attention. Copyright 2010- FantasyPros.com Robby went on to score 74% of his total PPR points on routes run from the slot compared to a measly 26% on . For example, if the tracking data indicates a pass will be completed 75% of the time and the receiver actually catches the pass, he is credited with plus-0.25. Receiving stats on short passes for Jarvis Landry, including separation over expected (SOE) and expected points added (EPA) per play, Wide receivers make the bulk of their high-value receptions on passes at intermediate depths (between 5 and 15 air yards). For qualifying wide receivers, the overall score correlates with yards per route 00 which I believe is the best conventional stat to measure receiver production -- at 0.76. NFL.com's Nick Shook takes a look at the top receivers of 2019 by route type. And if it's not completed, he would be debited accordingly. NFL's Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Were there any indicators that could have pointed to such a breakout? Essentially, based on routes run, Hopkins is almost playing an extra full quarter per game when compared to Jones. Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. These were somewhat shorter outs, averaging just 8.3 air yards per target, but Thomas still found a way to make the most of them, gaining an average of 2.72 yards after the catch on routes that are typically assigned to finish near the sideline. I came into this article with the belief that the rate of yards per route run during a wide receivers rookie season was a fairly strong indicator for future success, but I wanted to take a deep dive to really be sure. Also, there are several other factors considered in establishing the benchmark on each route. This makes it very easy for us to compare the two statistics: essentially, the question boils down to how valuable it is to know a receivers number of Targets per Route Run. At the individual player level, we can learn more about the micro nuances of route running. Find updated NFL wide receiver stats including season-long and weekly totals for receptions, targets, TDs, and more on LINEUPS.com PFFs Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position. At the time, Jernigan had barely seen the field, so he hadnt run many routes, either. Which view is correct? 1 year ago by Antonio Losada. There are important modifications to this calculation, which I'll detail below. Among the three metrics YPRR, Y/T, and TPRR its Targets Per Route Run thats the most consistent from year to year. For example, we can see that A.J. or on teams regularly employing multiple WRs on the field. AP MVP: Aaron Rodgers. 1. Stefon Diggs can make the seemingly impossible a reality. Thats where yards per route run comes into play. Yards per Target, of course, is very sensitive to outliers. Which statistics and measurables are the most sticky? Latest on Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Tutu Atwell including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN On top of that, hes not playing a high percentage of his teams snaps in any game. The Vikings pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history last week, but the Next Gen Stats analytics team says it wasn't the most improbable comeback of the season. Only Terry McLaurin was as productive in the scoring department on post routes as Diggs (three TDs apiece), which is why the Washington receiver makes the top three in this group. RTMs account for who's throwing the pass in two ways: We adjust the Catch Score and the part of the Open Score that assesses openness at pass arrival based on the quarterback. To account for this effect, Open Score is adjusted for the number of defenders exclusively "assigned" to a receiver. Wide Receivers (14) Previous Season Next Season. He's no DK Metcalf (his 6-4, 229-pound former Ole Miss teammate), but that actually works to his advantage, as his 226 pounds are well-packed into his frame to allow him to box out defenders, catch the ball and then outrun them to the end zone, with a stiff-arm packed in as a complimentary parting gift. Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question? The 6-foot-3, 211-pound wide receiver ended up with the lowest single-season PFF grade and yards per route run average of his eight-year NFL career in 2021. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. Stat Type. Receiving stats on intermediate passes for Michael Thomas and Julio Jones, including separation over expected (SOE) and expected points added (EPA) per play. He also posted a catch rate above expectation of +14.7 percent on those routes. Evaluating route types by advanced performance metrics can tell us which routes are the most valuable on a per-target basis, as you can see in the chart below. With my hypothesis lined up, it was time to dig into the data. provides a great one-number summary of just how efficient a receiver is on a down-by-down basis. It was far below his 2020 form, which ended in him being one of the five most valuable wide receivers in the NFL, according to PFF WAR. The Real Reason Presidential Candidates Form Exploratory Committees, Aug. 10, 2020, Full list of Mr. Irrelevants in NFL draft history: Is Brock Purdy already the best final pick? Thats what we are doing here. Note that while NFL playbooks have hundreds of variations of routes, we've narrowed it down to these high-level categories, including 10 routes for those in typical wideout alignments and five for those aligned in the backfield: Wideout Routes (10): Screen, flat, slant, crossing, out, in, hitch, corner, post, go Backfield Routes (5): Screen, flat, angle, out, wheel. In the tables above, I am referring to hit rate as any wide receiver that achieved WR1 (top-12 in PPR formats) status in a given season in his career. This suggests our metrics are truly isolating three independent skills that comprise receiver ability. In this case, the adjustment is a simple adjusted plus-minus among the QB and his receivers. We're back to the short routes, which means we're again seeing Thomas at the top of the list. Those numbers came in garbage time against Seattle and against Detroit and Washington, so they should be taken with a grain of salt. Ted Ginn Jr., now a member of the Chicago Bears, ranked as our least versatile route runner of 2019 among qualifying wide receivers. We approached routes run by players aligned in the backfield separately from routes run by players aligned out wide, in the slot or tight, because of clear differences in route archetypes. $4.99/mo Join FO+. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. But if he never plays again, he have caught 83 passes for 1,201 yards in his final 16 NFL games, split between his rookie and sophomore seasons. The data set includes all regular-season pass attempts from the last three seasons, excluding spikes and passes from punts and field goal formations. The other two weird names on the list are cut from different clothes than Jones or Blackmon. 41) Yards Per Target, and 1.90 (No. Routes run ranked higher than targets for running backs, and though they ranked lower than targets for wide receivers and tight ends, routes run still ranked highly overall. He was off-the-charts good in yards per target (13.9), but saw targets on just 9% of his routes run last year. John Bauer is a featured writer at FantasyPros. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. The fact that theres no competition for snaps within the backfield and that hes used in all phases of the game helps keep his upside higher than almost any other player in fantasy and means gamescript cant take him out of any game. The top five and bottom five most versatile route runners from the 2019 season among 72 wide receivers with at least 300 routes: This only scratches the surface of the analysis possible with our route recognition. When talking about sticky statistics, we are talking about numbers that we can point to with a level of certainty of carrying over year to year. This speaks greatly to Bells value as a fantasy asset. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase, AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons, AP Offensive Player of the Year: Cooper Kupp, AP Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, Rushing Leader: Jonathan Taylor, 1811 Yds, Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 2:31PM. Using the Next Gen Stats Draft Model, Mike Band identifies eight prospects to target AFTER Round 1. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. View 2022 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats including Yards After Catch, Average Depth of Targets, Catchable Passes, and more. While Johnson had the worst year of his career since becoming a Bills starter, he still managed to pull down targets on 25% of his snaps. To do this successfully, it takes a receiver who can win off the line, cut inside at an angle and catch a bullet from the quarterback for a solid gain. While sixteen of the wide receivers saw at least 80% of their teams passing snaps [6]Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. But we also see deep ball specialists like D.J. The Saints' WR1 gained 326 yards while running outs, the most in the NFL. 2 and 3 on this list). With our new route-classification model, we can evaluate which receivers are essentially the most predictable -- or different from the average. I did include sacks when calculating routes per team pass attempt, so that seems to be the only explanation. But from game 11 to the end of the season, his efficiency numbers began to decline. The best fit formula is: N+1 Yd/Tar = 5.84 + 0.28 * Yr N Yd/Tar (R^2 = 0.08). As previously discussed, Robert Foster hit those thresholds when it comes to yards per route run during his rookie year, but has yet to find fantasy relevance in the NFL. For reasons that will become evident in a moment, the far right column lists each players routes per team pass attempts in 2014. Part of this effect might be due to scheme, but unfortunately scheme and signal-caller overlap too much to parse those effects apart. Route data and target data are pretty easy to come by so dividing targets by routes gives us a simple percentage to work with. We use pass accuracy data from ESPN's video analysis tracking to adjust both the Catch Score and YAC Score based on the accuracy (high, low, ahead, behind) and intent of the throw. NOTE: The two players ranked below who changed teams this offseason -- Bills WR Stefon Diggs and Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins -- are listed with the teams they played for last season, since these rankings are based on their performance in 2019. This is the key to solve the problem: a receiver's openness is compared to the typical receiver's openness given the route, coverage, and depth, rather than the raw assessment. You don't currently have any notifications. Fortunately for our analysis, Yards per Route Run can be broken down into two metrics: Yards per Target and Targets per Route Run. will certainly allow you to drill down and begin to cross off several variables when projecting future performance. No, I'm a California resident looking for the California Consumer Privacy Act form. Steelers' first draft under Omar Khan was 'aggressive' and achieved high marks, After hoopla of going No. Beasley also saw significant action against Philadelphia in week seven, when the Cowboys were without their top two running backs. Yet throughout the offseason, NFL analysts have debated whether Thomass production is best explained by his skill and talent, or if instead hes merely a good receiver who runs a lot of slants and benefits from being in an elite offense. However, hes also somewhat at a detriment for fantasy, in that he runs a low number of routes per game. New Orleans Saints (52) Gaining insight into how they either excel or underperform could tell us which are ready to break out, if they were just targeted more often, and which receivers are making their quarterback look better than they actually are. The receiver is credited (or debited) for the yardage beyond (or below) that benchmark, rather than the raw yards after catch gained. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. After spending some time looking at our route data, I wanted to highlight a few of my favorite metrics that Ive found. No, we're not talking about the Minneapolis Miracle. One number that does not carry that weight for wide receivers is yards after the catch. What does that mean? In other words, YPRR already incorporates Yards per Target, but it adjusts that statistic for Targets Per Route Run. Time Period. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase. Another interesting feature of short-target SOE is that a players ability to consistently get open on short throws appears to be mostly nonexistent. One interesting insight from the adjustments is that quarterbacks have a large effect on the openness of receivers at pass arrival. Let's dig into the methodology behind the Route Recognition model: The Next Gen Stats player-tracking system records the x-y location, speed, acceleration, direction and orientation of all 22 players on the field in real time. Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. The Chief's quarterback is not a particularly accurate thrower, but he helps his targets get open. Seems like he has a strong case, even without a touchdown scored on a hitch. Jones was targeted deep more frequently, suggesting that his skillset is better suited to the demands of beating fast humans in a footrace, but hes also not as successful at creating separation from defenders as Thomas is. How will Josh McDaniels' Raiders and Robert Saleh's Jets address the gaping hole at quarterback? His YAC on hitches was second-best in the NFL, trailing only Keenan Allen. See how WRs perform across the NFL's key metrics. Play-action passes create more separation than non-play-action passes at nearly every depth of target on average, so we need to contextualize players who are targeted more often on play-action as well. With the help of player-tracking technology, the Next Gen Stats Analytics team set out to answer that exact question, decoding one of the key elements of an offensive play call by using player-tracking data to measure which routes pass catchers are running on any given pass play. As for the other 16 receivers on the list? Ginn ran a, Not listed in the bottom five, but relevant based on his reputation: Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf ranked 66th out of 72 receivers by our measure of route versatility. Is it more useful than Yards per Target? Here, we see that Y/T is not very sticky. Our architectural approach uses a combination of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks trained on Amazons SageMaker platform. In other words, only 47.4% of a receivers Yards per Route Run is predictive of his YPRR in Year N+1. ESPN Stats & Information Group. Then, in week 15, Cruz was injured in the third quarter against Seattle, and did not play again in 2014. Three receivers who met the 75-target minimum were targeted at least 10 times on corner routes: Robinson, Keenan Allen and Robby Anderson, who each saw 12 targets on such routes. In his second season as a pro -- and first in head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense -- the Cardinals' Christian Kirk ranked as the most versatile route runner of the 2019 season. (Again, no one doubts Joness talent or skills, and both he and Thomas are consistently in the conversation for best receiver in the league.). Who knows, but that at least explains why Jernigan was on the list. Yards per route run is the crown jewel of PFF's advanced stats for wide receivers. For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. Since 2017, the overall score correlates with Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value stat at 0.68, with EA Madden's player rating at 0.59 and Pro Football Focus' receiving grade at 0.76. We can break down statistics as simple as receiving yards all the way to air yards and even more in-depth measurables such as BMI, which seems to be a hot topic this offseason. Do Not Sell My Personal Information. For example, if there is a cornerback covering a receiver and a safety deep above him who matches the receiver's pattern much more than any other receiver, that receiver is credited with extra attention. We think this also makes sense. [1]I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But putting the quarterbacks issue aside, the question today is a more global one. Advanced stats like depth of target, separation window and completion probability provide greater insight, but they still leave out an important factor. Now, by itself, that doesnt make Targets per Route Run a good metric. [deleted] 2 yr. ago. Stat. Brown, and Hunter Renfrow all ran at least 250 routes while also having at least 2.00 yards per route run. Conventional counting stats like receptions and receiving yards provide a way to measure an individual player's ability to catch and move the football, but they only tell part of the story. CNNs allow us to engage with the spatial nature of our dataset (that is, where each player is on the field in a given play), while LSTM networks allow us to engage with the temporal nature of our dataset (what happens as the play develops over time). Davante Adams, Packers (6-1, 215 pounds) Adams, 28, came back from an injury-curbed season to light it up as big-time scorer again in 2020 setting a career high . All four are a per-play rate metric, rather than a counting or cumulative stat. Who has the edge? But in those games he gained 415 yards, and a 103.8 yard per game average while playing with Chad Henne is pretty incredible. Looking at the 2019 wide receiver draft class, there are several players that fall into these buckets. In some ways, TPRR is like completion percentage. Namely, which route did the pass catcher run to get open before catching the ball? at Parker went deep plenty in 2019, running 155 go routes and seeing 36 targets on those routes. But if we use each players TPRR and Y/T from last year, Stills projection stays at 1.45, while Johnsons rises to 1.74. There is a clear correlation between yards per route run in a wide receivers rookie season and future success as a fantasy WR1 or WR2. Ricky Seals-Jones ran only 68 routes last year but drew 28 targets for 201 yards and three touchdowns on those routes. Last month, we revealed a new set of rushing metrics derived from the ability to calculate Expected Rushing Yards. Seriously, though, it can't be much of a surprise to see these three players at the top for this route. 4) Stefon Diggs, Vikings (now with Bills), 72) Ted Ginn Jr., Saints (now with Bears), The most targeted routes outside of the WR Screen? It makes sense intuitively, as the more routes you run, the more targets you have available to you. Forty-eight percent of Thomass 185 targets came on passes 5 yards or less downfield in 2019. Thomas was pressed 49% of the time on crossing routes, yet he posted a catch rate that was 24.9% above expectation on 29 targets. Go to Ratings. While thats not a great stat line, it is a pretty good stat line for a player who was still only getting about 20 snaps per game. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. With Jermaine Gresham recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in Week 17, Arizona beat writers are projecting Seals-Jones to enter camp as the starter and with an expanded role in the offense. The next-closest players in that category were the Rams' Cooper Kupp (99) and the Browns' Jarvis Landry (96). Regular-season passes greater than 15 air yards, minimum of 30 targets. Regular-season passes of 5 air yards or shorter, minimum of 40 targets. Number of WRs w/ at least one WR1 Season + > 250 routes run during rookie year w/ at least 20 targets, Number of WRs w/ at least one WR1 season w/ at least 20 targets during rookie year (no minimum route run threshold). The resulting weights tell us a lot about the importance of the three skills. His opponents surely are, but you can't say they weren't warned: Thomas makes it clear with his Twitter handle that he can't be guarded. Having a high SOE in one season says very little about whether you will have a high SOE in the next.6 Short targets are also the only leaderboard where running backs make an appearance, owing to the dearth of targets they get deeper downfield. In the three seasons for which we have Next Gen data, Thomas has regularly posted high EPA per play values on these short targets and has been above average in creating separation at the catch point in two of the past three seasons. The data wizards are back again with another new way to break down some of the game's top weapons. 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018. . Live From New York: Will AI Replace This Podcast. However, he finds himself atop this list because of his league-leading 396 receiving yards and five touchdowns on go routes, which came as a result of 13 receptions and a 4.6 percent catch rate above expectation on such routes. Well, now we have an answer to those questions and many more. Thomas' air-yards-per-target average was higher on crosses than his aforementioned overall average (9.6 to 8.1), and his catch rate above expectation was second to only Lockett among those with at least 20 targets on crosses.
